Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of an "all-out invasion" of Tigray; Asmara says it is the target of a war of aggression

Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of launching an "all-out invasion" of its northern Tigray region, and Eritrea has accused Ethiopia of waging a war of aggression against it, as the two neighbours move closer to direct conflict.

In a letter reported by Reuters and Al Jazeera on 9 October, Ethiopia's Foreign Minister, Gedion Timothewos, said Eritrean troops had advanced up to 60 kilometres (37 miles) into Tigray and demanded that they withdraw. UN News reported that Ethiopia has warned it will defend itself.

Eritrea's Information Minister, Yemane Gebremeskel, rejected the accusation. "The Ethiopian regime has been pursuing, in effect, an unprovoked war of aggression against Eritrea for more than three years now," he said, according to Al Jazeera. He said Asmara had shown restraint since 2023, when landlocked Ethiopia stated that it would gain access to the sea, and accused Addis Ababa of using the current conflict to try to take the Eritrean port of Assab, Reuters and Al Jazeera reported. Eritrea denies supporting the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF).

What has been reported on the ground

None of the accounts below has been independently verified. The Associated Press said it could not confirm them.

Ermiyas Ababu, a commander of the Tigray Peace Force, a militia allied with the federal government, told AP that Eritrean personnel entered the town of Adigrat on Tuesday, 6 October, and Idaga Hamus the following day. The conflict monitor ACLED said Eritrean troops crossed the border at Zalambessa on Wednesday and came under drone attack at Guada while travelling towards Idaga Hamus. Its East Africa analyst, Jalale Getachew Birru, said sources identified the troops by their uniforms, vehicles and licence plates.

A second Tigray Peace Force commander, Gebreigziabher Beyene, told AFP that "the Eritrean army has entered Tigray in uniform, equipped with heavy weaponry." Adigrat lies about 115 kilometres north of the regional capital, Mekelle.

Witnesses in Adigrat described a night of strikes. "There were many, many drone strikes yesterday. Some Eritrean lorries have been destroyed," one told AP in a report carried by Africanews. ACLED attributed the strikes to Ethiopia's military.

Ethiopia's Government Communication Minister, Enatalem Melese, said: "All foreign military forces operating within our sovereign territory must withdraw immediately," The National reported.

Earlier in the week, Yemane neither confirmed nor denied that troops had crossed. "We are not in the business of refuting wild allegations or narratives," he told AP.

How the two countries got here

Eritrea became independent from Ethiopia in 1993, leaving Ethiopia without a coastline. The two fought a border war from 1998 to 2000. Relations improved after Abiy Ahmed became prime minister in 2018, and Eritrean forces fought alongside Ethiopia's army against the TPLF in the 2020-2022 war.

That alliance has now reversed. Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of backing the TPLF-led alliance that began fighting federal forces on 23 September. On 1 October the two countries severed diplomatic ties. Ethiopia closed its embassy in Asmara and ordered 10 Eritrean diplomats to leave, Al Jazeera reported. Abiy was sworn in on Monday, 5 October, and repeated that Ethiopia must have access to the Red Sea, according to AP.

As Asmara Post reported on 30 September, an analysis published by Martin Plaut said at that point that Eritrean forces had not openly engaged in the war. This week, a pro-government commander and a conflict monitor have described uniformed Eritrean troops inside Tigray.

Kjetil Tronvoll, a regional specialist at Oslo New University College, told AFP that Eritrea needed "strategic depth and a buffer zone in northern Tigray."

The war inside Tigray

Government-allied fighters entered Mekelle on Sunday, 4 October, after the TPLF announced its withdrawal, AP reported. Residents of Shire, in north-western Tigray, said TPLF forces left the town on Wednesday. "Everyone has closed their shops in Shire and moved their merchandise for fear of looting," one resident, Mesu'ud Ahmed, told AP.

The United States has warned that "the Horn of Africa cannot sustain another military conflict," The National reported. Ethiopia's Foreign Ministry has said it remains committed to dialogue with its neighbours, according to AP.

This report draws on reporting from the Associated Press (including via Africanews), Reuters (via CNBC Africa), AFP (via eNCA), Al Jazeera, The National, UN News and ACLED.